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Article Dans Une Revue International Tax and Public Finance Année : 2012

The effect of tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal balance: evidence from the Swiss cantons

Résumé

This study is an empirical analysis of the impact of direct tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal deficits. Using panel data from 26 Swiss cantons between 1980 and 2002, we estimate a single equation model on the fiscal balance, as well as a simultaneous equation model on revenue and expenditure.We use new data on budgeted and actual tax revenue to show that underestimating tax revenue significantly reduces fiscal deficits. Furthermore, we show that this effect is channeled through decreased expenditure. The effects of over and underestimation turn out to be symmetric.

Dates et versions

halshs-00760272 , version 1 (03-12-2012)

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Citer

Florian Chatagny, Nils Soguel. The effect of tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal balance: evidence from the Swiss cantons. International Tax and Public Finance, 2012, 19, pp.319-337. ⟨10.1007/s10797-011-9189-5⟩. ⟨halshs-00760272⟩
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